Is the Spoiler Effect a Threat in Presidential Elections?

Third-party and independent candidates can spoil the chances of major party nominees in Choose 1 elections. A few votes in select states can spoil presidential elections.

Cases from presidential elections:

2020

In 2020, Libertarian Jo Jorgensen may have spoiled Donald Trump in the states of Georgia and Arizona. Those states would not have given Trump enough Electoral College Votes to win the election, he would have been 11 electoral college votes short.

Jorgensen polled 62,229 votes in Georgia and 51,465 in Arizona. Without Jorgensen in the race, Trump would have needed 11,780 more Libertarian votes than Biden in Georgia, and 10,458 more in Arizona. Trump was likely favored by Libertarians, but many Libertarians would have abstained or voted for a different third-party candidate. Some would have voted for Biden. It would have been close.

1992 & 1996

Ross Perot received 18.9% of the presidential vote in 1992 and 9% in 1996,[1] enough to spoil both elections, but his votes came in near equal numbers from left and right.

Clinton backed NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement), the Omnibus Crime Bill of 1994 (expanding drug war mass incarceration), and financial market deregulation, including the repeal of Glass-Steagall. All passed with bi-partisan support. Perhaps the 1992 and 1996 elections were not Republican vs Democrat, rather donor class candidate A vs donor class candidate B.

America needs Multi Party Election Reform to avoid future donor class vs donor class elections.

2000

In 2000, Ralph Nader, with 97,488 votes in Florida, spoiled the presidential election. Political scientists Jeffrey Lewis and Michael Herron estimated that 40% of Nader’s voters would have not voted or supported Bush, leaving 60% for Al Gore. The 60 / 40 split would have netted Al Gore 19,497 or more votes.[2]

The Gore campaign challenged late-arriving overseas absentee ballots without postmarks. Most ballots came from the military, as overseas military mail might not be postmarked.[3] The Supreme Court had an irrisitable opportunity to halt the recount with Bush leading by 537 votes.

This leaves us with two questions. Would the result have been different if Ralph Nader had embraced the Nader Trader concept? and  Is Nader Trading Legal and Moral?

[1] Ross Perot  Wikipedia – Ross Perot

[2] Did Ralph Nader Spoil a Gore Presidency? A Ballot-Level Study of Green and Reform Party Voters in the 2000 Presidential Election.  Green and Reform Party Voters

[3] The military ballots that have divided Democrats for 15 years. Bush Gore military ballots